Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
