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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.