🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|