🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.